By Patrick Thurston
The scrutiny surrounding the accuracy and impartiality of election polls in South Africa reveals deep-seated issues of Western influence and conflicts of interest, fundamentally questioning the role the polls play in the democratic process.
Western-backed organisations such as Ipsos, the Social Research Foundation and the Brenthurst Foundation have been instrumental in shaping political narratives, often accused of skewing public opinion to favour specific outcomes.
This manipulation is not just a local concern but mirrors global scepticism towards polling practices where similar patterns of inaccuracy and bias have been identified.
One glaring example of potential conflict of interest in South African polling is the engagement of Victory Research by the Social Research Foundation.
Notably, Victory Research’s managing partner holds a significant role in the DA, raising serious concerns about the impartiality of the polls conducted by the firm. The arrangement was highlighted in a report by IOL News, which emphasised the inherent risk of bias when pollsters have direct political affiliations.
Internationally, the reliability of election polls has been increasingly challenged. A study from Berkeley Haas pointed out a significant discrepancy in poll accuracy, finding that despite a 95% confidence claim, the accuracy hovered around only 60%. The substantial margin of error could severely mislead public opinion and political strategy, suggesting that the polls might be more about crafting perceptions than reflecting them.
New political parties, like ActionSA have voiced frustrations with how traditional polling underestimates their electoral impact. Despite predictions to the contrary, ActionSA's performance in elections has consistently exceeded poll-based expectations, indicating a systemic undervaluation of emerging political entities. Such discrepancies highlight the broader issue of how polls are used to shape, rather than gauge, public opinion. The sentiment is supported by ActionSA’s statements, which argue that polling methodologies overlook the dynamic changes within the electorate, particularly the underrepresentation of rural voters and new political forces.
The 2019 election serves as a case study in thee issues. The South African Institute of Race Relations provided polling data that significantly underestimated the ANC’s electoral performance while overestimating the DA’s, a discrepancy that could be perceived as an attempt to influence voter expectations and electoral outcomes. Such instances underscore the potential for polls to be used as tools of political engineering rather than objective measures of public sentiment.
Given the extensive evidence of bias, inaccuracies and the overt influence of Western-backed organisations, there is an urgent need to re-evaluate how election polls are conducted and presented in South Africa.
The practice threatens the democratic process, necessitating reforms to ensure that future polls are transparent, unbiased and accurately reflect the true sentiment of the electorate. The reforms are crucial to safeguarding the integrity of South Africa’s electoral process, ensuring it remains free from external manipulation and internal biases, and truly reflects the will of its people.
The stakes are high, and the need for change is imperative to maintain the trust and efficacy of democratic institutions in South Africa.
Patrick Thurston is an independent writer, podcaster, and journalist renowned for his extensive investigative reporting across Africa, Europe, and Asia. Formerly the editor of SETRAD Magazine, Africa for the AGOA Initiative, Patrick has collaborated with numerous media outlets globally, bringing crucial stories to light. His work reflects a deep commitment to uncovering the truth and providing comprehensive insights into the topics he explores.