Recovery will only help rich to get richer
October 30, 2009
 By Terry Bell
One man's meat is another man's poison. Never has that aphorism been more appropriate to the global economy than now.
That, at least, seems to be the broad, labour movement view as politicians and their economic advisors, almost without exception, predict the start of a turnaround in the world's economic fortunes.
But in a South African context, a second aphorism also seems particularly apt when applied to much of the local labour movement: clutching at straws.
This week, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan took the turnaround stance when he delivered his medium-term budget policy statement. But he also maintained that spending in the social arena would be maintained through borrowing and a hefty deficit.
Even mainstream economists such as Iraj Abedian admit that Gordhan's projections on borrowing and payback are predicated on the economy growing over the next two to three years.
This is something about which the labour movement, both in South Africa and elsewhere, would not disagree.
So far as most trade union analysis is concerned, economic growth is possible, even probable, in the next year or two. But this meat of growth, they fear, will feed the rich minority at the cost of lives and suffering for the vast majority.
This fear is well founded because recorded - technical - economic growth in many parts of the world over the past decade has not been accompanied by a parallel rise in the number of jobs.
The contrary is usually the fact and, in the past two years in particular - South Africa is a prime example - job-loss growth has been the norm; in other words, greater wealth was created on the back of greater unemployment and more suffering.
The issue was summed up neatly this week by Dennis George, the general secretary of the Federation of Unions of SA (Fedusa). He noted: "We can't talk about an upturn unless there is a jobs return."
But at the same time, three of the four local trade union federations generally welcomed this week's budget statement because of the promises it held out, not just for growth, but for job creation.
This could, of course, be said to reflect what British author Carmen Callil has called "the faith of desperation".
The exception is the Confederation of South African Workers' Unions. General secretary Khulile Nkushubana sees virtually no redeeming feature in Gordhan's budgetary message. "What we have is more of the same; job-loss growth and borrowing to rescue ailing business to the benefit of shareholders. Government should be more responsible."
But so far as Cosatu, Fedusa and the National Council of Trade Unions (Nactu) are concerned, Gordhan's statement, while in some respects worrying, should broadly be welcomed. The fact that he verbally linked job creation to economic growth while maintaining spending levels in areas such as health and education was lauded by Cosatu spokesman Patrick Craven.
However, Craven also noted in an interview that the federation was concerned that much praised economic growth over the past decade had resulted in a greater gap between rich and poor.
Craven also admitted to fears that the domestic "jobs massacre" will not cease, especially as the major 2010 World Cup stadium projects come to an end.
Thousands of workers employed on these projects - the unionised majority belong to the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) - are on short-term contracts.
NUM spokesman Lesiba Seshoka says: "Like about 48 000 mineworkers who have already lost their jobs, many of them will be flushed out of the system."
Similar fears are expressed by Nactu general secretary Manene Samela. The Building Construction and Allied Workers' Union, a Nactu affiliate, has already registered its concerns in this regard.
The unions are aware that the loss of "unproductive" labour may ensure a retention - even an increase - in profit levels, and that these may contribute towards reported economic growth.
Nonetheless, most unions have given qualified - and apparently straw clutching - support to Gordhan's budget statement.
In contrast, the SACP maintains: "The policy statement has laid a firm basis for engagement with the government on its fiscal priorities, and issues of macroeconomic and monetary policy."
Gordhan made it clear that there would be no deviation from the established growth-before-redistribution orientation in what Britain's Trade Union Congress general secretary Brendan Barber referred to this week as "the longest recession in modern economic history".
Barber added: "Even if we achieved a technical recovery today, it would not feel like a recovery to the thousands losing their jobs or afraid that they will join (them) in the months ahead when unemployment will continue rising."
In this context, the (technical) meat of economic growth amounts to a cannibalistic feast, with the rich continuing, metaphorically, to devour the tortured poor. To add another cliche: perhaps it is time to grasp this nettle, rather than to clutch at straws.
|
|
