Forecast for tobacco production reduced
February 22, 2005
By Antony Sguazzin
Johannesburg - Universal, the world's biggest tobacco leaf merchant, cut its forecasts for 2005 production of flue-cured and burley tobacco on expectations of smaller crops in Argentina and Mozambique.
US-based Universal cut its forecast for production of flue-cured tobacco, the top grade of the leaf, by 0.3 percent from a January 24 forecast to 3.813 billion kilograms, it said in a report on its website last week.
The forecast for burley was also cut by 0.3 percent, to 857 million kilograms.
The lower flue-cured forecast was "due primarily to a substantial decrease in Argentina", Universal said. The burley estimate was "cut due primarily to a decrease in Mozambique, partially offset by an increase in Brazil".
Universal, without giving reasons in the report, slashed Argentina's projected output of flue-cured tobacco by 11 percent to 88 million kilograms, making the country the world's fifth-biggest exporter of that variety.
Projected output of lower-grade burley from Mozambique was cut by 9.3 percent to 49 million kilograms.
Brazil's expected output of burley tobacco was raised to 142 million kilograms from 140 million kilograms. Brazil is the world's top exporter of both the flue-cured and burley varieties.
While China is the biggest producer of flue-cured, it consumes its own output, which was forecast by Universal at 1.7 billion kilograms.
Indonesia's projected output of flue-cured tobacco was reduced to 38 million kilograms from 40 million.
In a separate report, Universal said Tanzania's expected flue- cured crop of 54 million kilograms might be cut by 3 million kilograms because of heavy rains.
Global flue-cured output in 2004 was 3.763 billion kilograms, while burley production last year was 877 million kilograms.
Flue-cured tobacco is produced by drying the crop in a closed barn with heat piped in from a furnace.
Producers of air-cured and burley tobacco, also cured in the open air, use less costly methods.
Exporters of flue-cured tobacco were expected to have 1.829 billion kilograms available for shipment, Universal said. That was 0.7 percent less than it projected a month ago.
The estimate for the global oriental tobacco crop in 2004 was unchanged at 377 million kilograms. Turkey and Greece are the top two producers of this type of tobacco.
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