Sacci poll finds trade conditions improving
August 13, 2009
By Sapa
Trade conditions are pointing to signs of recovery, according to the July trade conditions survey by SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci).
Sacci said yesterday that the trade activity index, which reflects current trade conditions, rose to 42 in July after measuring 39 in June.
"Although trade conditions remained in negative territory, that is below 50 index points, it is the highest level this year and the highest since the 46 of October 2008," Sacci said.
The gradual recovery from the low of 32 in April received further support, Sacci added.
The sales and new orders sub-components of trade activity were up on the May and June levels, while the sub- index on current sales volumes gained five points in July to measure 47 points, Sacci said.
The new orders sub-index recovered to 42 in July - also the best level this year.
Sacci noted that supplier deliveries dipped slightly to 39 in July from 41 in June, confirming improved demand.
Selling prices went up slightly in July and the index rose to 51 from 50 while the input price index fell slightly by three points in July to 59.
Inflationary pressures appeared to be contained, Sacci said, as the prices of imported producer goods fell by nearly 18 percent year on year in June and the prices of locally produced goods fell by 4.1 percent year on year in June.
Respondents were more optimistic in their six month outlook and the trade expectations index (TEI) was much higher in July at 56 compared with 49 in June, Sacci said.
"The TEI has been trending upward since March and the July figure is the highest since the 56 of August 2008," it added.
Sales expectations for July rose by nine points to 65.
Expectations for new orders improved by five index points to 58 in July, while the index on supplier delivery prospects gained six index points.
"Although there is a more positive outlook for most aspects of trade conditions six months ahead, inflationary expectations rose for the next six months as the indices on expected input and sales prices both increased," Sacci said.
Sacci said employment prospects increased to 46 in July from 41 in June.
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