Trade conditions remain depressed, Sacci
July 15, 2009
By Sapa
Trade conditions remained depressed last month, according to the monthly Trade Conditions Survey released by the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) yesterday.
The trade activity index, which measures current trade conditions, remained virtually unchanged on 39 index points last month after measuring 40 points in May, Sacci said.
"Trade conditions remain depressed and in negative territory, that is, below 50 index points," Sacci said.
However, current levels pointed to a gradual recovery in the index from the low of 32 points in April.
Sacci said the sales and new orders sub-components of trade activity were slightly down on the May levels and remained in negative territory.
The sub-index on current sales volumes, which gained 15 points in May, lost 3 index points last month to measure 42 points. Sacci said the new orders sub-index, which gained 9 points in May, declined by 4 points to 34 last month
However, supplier deliveries improved further from 38 to 41 last month, while backlogs on orders rose marginally.
According to Sacci, selling prices had risen marginally last month from 49 to 50, while the input price index rose 6 points last month to 62 points.
Inflationary pressures, however, appeared to be contained as the prices of imported producer goods declined by nearly 17 percent in May and the prices of locally produced goods fell 3 percent.
Sacci said respondents were more optimistic in their six-month outlook and the trade expectations index was higher at 49 points last month, compared with 46 points in May. The index has risen since April.
Sacci said: "There is a more positive outlook for most aspects of trade conditions six months hence. Inflationary expectations for the next six months (scope of survey) were lower and the indices on expected input and sales prices declined by 5 points and 1 point, respectively, in June."
Sacci said notwithstanding higher expectations on inflation in the May survey, inflationary expectations receded somewhat in last month's survey. The direction of inflation, however, seemed uncertain given some administered price shocks announced last month.
Current employment conditions in the trade environment remained weak at 38 points for the employment index.
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