Zuma's trial remains a political risk nightmare
February 17, 2009
By Ethel Hazelhurst
The legal tribulations of ANC presidential candidate Jacob Zuma "will remain South Africa's crucial political risk factor" in the coming year, according to Anne Freuehauf, a southern and east Africa analyst at risk consultant Control Risks.
At a presentation in Johannesburg yesterday, she said: "The corruption trial scheduled for August raises all sorts of concerns over his ability to fulfil his duties in office and the prospect of paralysis at the highest level."
She said policy was an underlying concern. "Though the ANC's Polokwane conference did not endorse sweeping policy changes, the party's future relationship with its alliance partners will be subject to periodic renegotiation, particularly amid dampened economic realities."
Chris Melville, the head of Control Risks' Africa desk, identified South Africa, Malawi and Namibia as countries that could become the "Kenya of 2009".
Kenya's elections in December 2007 were followed by accusations of vote rigging, which triggered ethnic violence.
"There are genuine expectations of change, open competition between political parties and excessive optimism on the part of ruling parties that they would win free elections."
Melville said he did not see elections in the region as a major source of instability.
Freuehauf said: "Elections are determined by the twin principles of organisation and re- sources." She said the performance of Congress of the People (Cope) was "rather shaky".
Referring to Mosiuoa Lekota, Cope's president, she said: "His assertion that the battle is all about ideas is really a veiled admission that Cope is lacking in resources and organisation."
In contrast, the ANC "looks highly organised - measured by turnouts at rallies and the use of new media [and it] appears to be vastly better at systematically combing through disadvantaged wards, while Cope's interventions appear far from strategic".
However, she said, underneath the appearance of organisation there was "plenty of disarray" and there would "almost certainly be no honeymoon" for Zuma after the election on April 22.
"A crucial question is, of course, whether the pursuit of [the ANC's] short-term interests - saving a political leader and placating political tensions - will come at the expense of the longer-term concern of upholding the rule of law," she said.
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